February 11, 2026: Russian leader Vladimir Putin faces dire prospects in 2026. Russia has been fighting a war that is now longer than the one against the Germans in World War II. Unlike World War II, Russia is losing the Ukraine war. Russia lost over 100,000 soldiers in 2025 and only took two percent of Ukrainian territory during the last two years. Ukrainian forces, on the defensive most of the time, lose a third of that.

Russian military and political leaders realize that Russia cannot win militarily but cannot admit defeat and withdraw from Ukraine without risking a collapse of the current government. Russian soldiers can remain in Ukraine and do little fighting while clandestinely bringing the war to the NATO countries that support Ukraine. This includes Russian warships and combat aircraft increasingly passing over these countries or violating the 22 kilometer coastal waters that are considered national territory.

Information warfare is also promising. Many political parties in Europe are pro-Russian and eager to see a negotiated peace in Ukraine. That would end the billions of dollars’ worth of military and economic aid these countries are currently sending to Ukraine. Keeping that money at home means more can be spent on local needs.

Then there is an expansion of the existing Russian sabotage efforts in Europe. Planting bombs in factories producing military goods or sabotaging trains or trucks taking weapons and equipment to Ukraine. There has already been some of this and an escalation would bring the war home to Europeans in a very physical fashion. End the war or stop supporting Ukraine and the violence ends.

Meanwhile Russia has its own war related problems. The economy is overheated and less able to support the war effort. There is a labor shortage, loan interest rates are moving towards 20 percent and the economy is expected to grow by less than one percent in 2026. The cost of continuing the war is nine percent of GDP, a level that cannot be supported indefinitely. Another year or two of that kind of spending will cause long-term damage to the economy.

Another ominous decline is what Russia gets for its oil and natural gas exports. Prices are falling and expected to keep falling throughout 2026. By the end of 2025 oil prices were down by a third versus 2024. Petroleum products are the main source of income for the national budget. The Sovereign Wealth fund is half of what it was in 2022 and continuing to shrink. This is the money used to pay for national emergencies. It has been gradually depleted to pay war costs over the last few years. If that fund is depleted, Russia has no economic safety net.