January 7, 2026: While Valdimir Putin insists Russian forces will continue fighting until Ukraine is once more part of Russia, some of his close associates favor peace. There are not just rumors about Putin, but also his key associates, like Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Recent rumors had Lavrov secretly trying to get peace negotiations going and end the Ukraine war. Other Russian diplomats have been ordered by Putin to try and make a deal, but none have succeeded.

The Ukraine War is the most ruinous one for Russia since World War II, which Russians call the Great Patriotic War. At least thirteen percent of the population died in that war, nearly 30 million Russian soldiers and civilians. That war lasted nearly four years and soon the Ukraine War will have lasted longer. While most Russians still believe that Ukraine should belong to Russia, many are beginning to have second thoughts about continuing the war. Over a million Russian men have been killed, disabled, or are missing in Ukraine. Over a million additional Russian men have left to avoid service in Ukraine.

Western economic sanctions and the growing costs of the war have bankrupted Russia. Recently Russia was not able to pay troops stationed in Ukraine. That was not an isolated incident. The government is no longer offering large cash bonuses to entice men to join the army and die in Ukraine, or death benefits to their families. Russia has obtained the services of 15,000 North Korean soldiers and is negotiating to obtain a similar number of Cubans. These soldiers have to be paid, but if they are killed, no Russian families will be in mourning or angry about not receiving death benefits.

Russian civilians have much more to worry about. The economy is a mess; inflation is rising and there was a labor shortage until the growing economic problems caused many enterprises to shut down. Many Russians are protesting not the invasion of Ukraine, but the impact it is having on them and family members. The Russian government overreacted, as it tends to do, arresting thousands of Russians for casual comments about the son of a friend who might be sent to Ukraine. When the Russian government decides that there is too much dissent among the public about the war, even if it’s not criticism, arrests must be made and the people must be made to understand that all Russians support what is being done in Ukraine. Most Russians do, but the government believes that rounding up and punishing a few thousand people will inspire everyone else to keep quiet.

It should be no surprise that the families of businessmen/oligarchs and government officials are also unhappy. Even some of these families have lost men in Ukraine, where many sons served as officers. A growing number of Russian officials are responding with more corruption. Never underestimate self-interest. The Russian war effort always had some corruption, and the government did little to suppress it. That would be bad for the morale of government and military officials. It seems the only senior people who still support the war are shrinking, because of age-related deaths, elderly officials. These men fear that if Putin dies, and he has recently appeared ill, there might be another time of troubles as has happened many times before in similar circumstances. That will be the result of having too few friends and too many enemies and nations unfriendly towards Russia. That’s a growing list.

Two years ago, Russia added longtime neighbor Norway to the Russian list of Unfriendly States. The addition of ancient friendly neighbor Norway increases the number of official Unfriendly States to 49. Since then, the number has increased to fifty. Most nations on the list wonder why they are considered unfriendly to Russia, despite years, or even centuries, of friendly relations. The only nation on the list that has a reason to be unfriendly to Russia is Ukraine. Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, in an effort to absorb Ukraine into Russia. Ukraine prefers to remain independent and points out that, as a member of the UN, Russia agreed, in writing, to respect the independence of other UN members. There are over a dozen other nations on the unfriendly list that used to be part of one Russian empire or another. Russia thinks of these nations as unfriendly just because they openly oppose becoming part of Russia.

This violent history with Russia and the Soviet Union played a major role in Ukraine and Belarus insisting on independence when the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991. Many Russians saw this Ukrainian independence as a temporary condition, something they went to war over in 2022 and openly declared they will do to other unfriendly nations that were once part of one of the many Russian empires. Several of those unfriendly states are now members of NATO. This organization has 31 members, soon to become 32 when Sweden joins. Ukraine wants to be member 33.

The NATO alliance worked because its members, collectively, constitute the largest economic and military capabilities on the planet. Russia, especially leader Vladimir Putin, feared that NATO would somehow become a military threat. That was never NATO’s intention, and the coalition has lasted so long because it stuck to its role as a defensive alliance. Some Russians, like Putin, see NATO’s ability to constrain Russian attack options as a form of coercion and hostility towards Russia. Similar misconceptions are common throughout history and often a cause of war. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Russian justification for that is one such example of this perverse logic. The expansion of NATO membership after the Cold War ended was seen as essential for nations near Russia to survive and that assessment proved correct. That’s why long-time neutrals like Sweden and Finland suddenly sought to join NATO. Collectively, NATO is a huge organization in terms of population and military capabilities and becomes more useful the larger it becomes. As a defensive organization it reduces military spending for members and increases national security. The cost of running NATO is miniscule, as is the annual cost to members. Efforts to establish a similar defensive organization in East Asia have increased as the Chinese military threat grows. China is not seen as unstable and prone to aggression as Russia, but neighbors of China detect ominous changing attitudes inside China that warrant considering an Asian version of NATO.