July 23, 2025:
Ukrainian political and military leaders have been working on a long-term solution to their Russian Problem. Russia and Ukraine will always be neighbors but they don’t always have to be at war.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin insists Russia will never give up seeking to conquer Ukraine. A growing number of Russians and most Ukrainians and NATO members believe that Russia cannot not sustain its Ukraine War effort over the long term or, at this point, even the short term. Putin recently admitted that the Russian economy was entering a period of difficulty. That’s an understatement, because the Russian economic situation continues to go from bad to much worse.
The latest obstacle is the American plan to threaten nations that buy Russian oil with heavy sanctions unless they find another supplier. Russia sells its sanctioned oil at a discount using a fleet of several hundred smaller tankers optimized for smuggling. NATO nations, especially the United States, have been developing and testing ways to identify these tankers and put them out of business. Officially, Russia denies that this tanker fleet exists, so they won’t make much of a public fuss over the loss of these ships.
Even a partial decline in oil exports can be catastrophic for Russia because oil is their primary source of foreign currency needed to buy imports. Russia has already exhausted their emergency cash reserve and is operating day-to-day on hard currency they bring in via exports and barter. India, China and Iran are Russia’s primary partners. Iran has been neutralized and has problems taking care of its domestic needs. India does not want to be sanctioned by most of the world's major exporters. China is currently the world’s largest exporter but that status is under threat as foreign manufacturers pull out of China and long-term trading partners are suddenly looking for non-Chinese suppliers. It’s becoming very expensive to remain a Russian trading partner. Since 2104, when Russia seized Crimea and portions of two east Ukrainian provinces the economic sanctions against Russia have been increasing. So while Putin insists, he will never stop his war with Ukraine, the rest of the world is diminishing Russian economic capabilities.
Eventually Putin will have to pay attention to the increasingly dire state of the Russian economy. The Russian people are becoming more outspoken about the economic sacrifices they have been forced to endure so the Ukraine War can continue.
Ukraine has far fewer economic problems and far more local and foreign resources. Ukraine is more likely to get economically stronger while Russia has problems hanging on to what it still has. The Ukraine War is a stalemate, with Russia continuing to suffer more casualties each day than Ukraine. That’s because Russia insists on continually attacking and losing soldiers it has a more difficult time obtaining. Russia tried to buy its way out of their soldier shortage and currently 20 percent of the government’s annual budget goes to cash payments for new recruits, soldiers who were wounded and families of the dead troops.
Putin fails to acknowledge that he has fewer options than his NATO-backed foe. The Ukrainians are taking advantage of this and Putin, so far, does not publicly admit the economic problems he has and he Ukrainians do not have.