May 14, 2025: Since 2024 more and more Ukrainian generals and military analysts have been predicting the collapse of the Russian military by mid-2025. Now their Russian counterparts are agreeing that the end is near. One Russian general was so dismayed at this that he killed himself. Increasingly Russian men are not just evading military service, but helping those in the military to walk away.

It’s not just the soldiers. Russian industry, starved by increasingly harsh economic sanctions since 2014 sanctions, is no longer able to produce military equipment. Worse, the capability to repair or refurbish existing equipment has disappeared. Since the 1990s most state owned firms have become western style enterprises. These companies put paying customers first, especially export orders. Foreigners pay in hard currencies like dollars, Euros or Yuan. The Chinese economy is now the second largest in the world and willing to do business with Russians, if they can pay in hard currency. The Russia ruble is considered worthless for foreign trade and most Russian consumers don’t trust their own currency.

Over two million Russians were sent to Ukraine and so far over a million have been killed, disabled or deserted. By early 2025 there were about half a million Russian troops in Ukraine, facing nearly twice as many Ukrainian soldiers. By April 2025 a growing number of Russian soldiers are simply changing into whatever civilian clothes they can find and walking way. Officers are supposed to shoot deserters, but that rule no longer applies because the troops will shoot back.

The departing soldiers walk because the military has few working vehicles. The Ukrainians always concentrated on destroying Russian trucks and other transport. With the Russian railroads collapsing because of sanctions, trucks and automobiles are all you have left. Russian soldiers will seize vehicles at gunpoint. This exodus from the war zone is expected to escalate until there are no armed Russians left in Ukraine. Ukrainian and Russian commanders believe the Russian war effort will collapse by late 2025. That means no Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine and hardly any Russian production of weapons and other military supplies.

The crippled Russian industries and transportation system means starvation for many civilians. This is finally forcing leader Vladimir Putin to face reality. Historically starving Russians have gone after their leaders and replaced them with someone who will take care of basic needs like food, fuel and transportation. Throughout the war Putin had the support of the oligarchs, the men who controlled the largest business enterprises. With the war lost and the economy a shambles because of the war Putin is going to lose his job as well. The oligarchs are fed up with empty promises that the war would be won and Russia would prosper. When the war is over, the NATO nations are not promising a return to peacetime economic relations with Russia.

In early 2025 Putin announced that the semi-annual conscription would call up 160,000 men. He was told that there were not enough weapons and equipment for these recruits. They would get uniforms and dilapidated barracks to live in but not much to eat. Hungry, idle soldiers lead to unrest and rebellion. That happened a century ago when the monarchy collapsed. Russians have long called their leader Tsar Vladimir and now the Tsar must go. Armed and angry soldiers take care of this.

The anger comes from a lack of heavy weapons like artillery and armored vehicles. The remaining tanks, artillery and munitions in the reserve depots were found to be useless. Tanks that won’t run, artillery with worn out barrels and munitions that are unreliable because of age related decomposition. Communications equipment was always unreliable but now there is no one to repair them because there are no replacement parts. The cause of all this was lack of maintenance, which the government assured everyone was being provided. The government ran out of viable assurances and the troops ran out of patience. Too many broken promises breeds contempt and desertion.

Russians remember that before the war several Ministers of Defense assured everyone that reforms were under way and working. They lied and when it became obvious in Ukraine, Russian civilians and soldiers responded with anger and apathy. That is why industrial production is collapsing and soldiers are deserting.

Ukrainians believe the collapse of the Russian war effort will arrive in the next three or four months. The signs are already there and when the end comes it will be glorious for the Ukrainians and disillusioning for the Russians. Ukrainian leader Zelensky will be praised while Vladimir Putin will be looking for any excuses that might still work.